Exploring the ecological feasibility of restoring Eurasian lynx to Great Britain using spatially explicit individual-based modelling

Premier, Joe, Brady, Deborah, Cartwright, Samantha, Robinson, Hugh, Weckworth, Byron, Oeser, Julian, Eagle, Adam, Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Heurich, Marco (2025) Exploring the ecological feasibility of restoring Eurasian lynx to Great Britain using spatially explicit individual-based modelling. Journal of Environmental Management, 389 . p. 125646.

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Abstract

Highlights:
• Great Britain lacks top carnivores, reintroduction may help ecosystem restoration.
• Empirically derived habitat suitability models can provide crucial insights.
• Spatially explicit demogenetic models offer a fuller picture of long-term viability.
• Suitable release sites and key drivers of reintroduction success were identified.
• In the best sites reintroduction could succeed under current habitat conditions.

Abstract:
Ecological restoration offers a multitude of benefits for the human-nature system, which has put it at the forefront of international initiatives opposing environmental degradation. In Great Britain, the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx has been proposed to help improve ecosystem health, raising the question; what is the ecological feasibility of lynx reintroduction in Great Britain? Combining a lynx-specific spatially explicit individual-based model and contemporary habitat suitability mapping would shed new light on this question. We hypothesised potential drivers of reintroduction success, including demographic parameters, behavioural responses in habitat selection, and management strategies. We further hypothesised that reintroductions may not be viable in some regions, therefore, we considered scenarios with improved habitat to understand the potential effect of national habitat creation policies. We aimed to provide evidence on practical and ecological conditions necessary for successful reintroduction to support stakeholder discussions. We found that the release site was critical to ensure low extinction probability and advantageous population expansion for demographic viability and maintenance of neutral genetic diversity. Specifically, Aberdeenshire, Galloway, and Kielder Forest had robust reintroduction success under diverse conditions, even without the hypothesised habitat improvements. Our simulations suggested a population of 240 individuals could emerge from a release in Aberdeenshire and population of 60 individuals from a release in either Kielder Forest or Galloway, all with allelic richness >2 and extinction probabilities ≤5 %. Our work suggests a well-planned, legal, lynx reintroduction in Great Britain could be feasible, provided there is acceptance in key stakeholder groups.

Item Type:	Article
Journal / Publication Title:	Journal of Environmental Management
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	1095-8630
Departments:	Institute of Science and Environment > Forestry and Conservation Centre for National Parks and Protected Areas (CNPPA)
Additional Information:	Deborah Brady, Honorary Research Fellow, University of Cumbria, UK. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Depositing User:	Insight Administrator
SWORD Depositor:	Insight Administrator
Date Deposited:	25 Jun 2025 08:57
Last Modified:	25 Jun 2025 09:00
URI:	https://insight.cumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/8935

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