Challenging year ahead

Peck, Frank ORCID logo ORCID: (2021) Challenging year ahead. In Cumbria Magazine, 2021 (Jan). pp. 22-23.

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Professor Frank Peck discusses the effect of Covid-19 on the Cumbrian economy and whether 2021 can be any better?

As we greet the New Year, we can look back on the extraordinary events of 2020 and consider the prospects of recovery in 2021. At the time of writing (early December), the latest forecasts for annual growth in 2020 range between -8.9% and -12.4% with an average expectation of -11% (HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK Economy: comparison of independent forecasts, No 400, November 2020.). To put this in perspective, this far exceeds the declines recorded in all recent major recessions in the UK. In the period since 1945, “significant” year on year declines in GDP have been recorded during the oil crisis of 1973 (-2.5%), manufacturing decline in 1980 (-2%), and more recently during the 2009 financial crisis (-4.2%). None of these even approach the experience recorded in 2020. The forecasts for 2021 suggest recovery, with an average forecast of +4.8%, ranging from optimists that estimate +7.6% while pessimists suggest flatlining at around 0.7%. Unlike most previous recessions, experts are clearly not expecting a rapid bounce-back.

Item Type: Article
Journal / Publication Title: In Cumbria Magazine
Publisher: CN Group
Departments: Institute of Business, Industry and Leadership > Business
Centre for Regional Economic Development (CRED)
Additional Information: Professor Frank Peck is research director of the Centre for Regional Economic Development (CRED) at the University of Cumbria’s Institute of Business, Industry & Leadership.
Depositing User: Anna Lupton
Date Deposited: 01 Nov 2023 16:29
Last Modified: 13 Jan 2024 11:32


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